Will Britain's deadline for a trade deal with the EU be met?

EARLY LAST month Boris Johnson proposed a deadline of October 15th for a free-trade deal with the European Union. If missed, both sides should “accept that and move on”. Yet he and the European Commission’s president, Ursula von der Leyen, decided on October 3rd to intensify trade talks, even though nobody now expects a deal next week. The EU similarly fixed a deadline of September 30th for Britain to scrap clauses in its internal-market bill to override the Northern Ireland provisions in January’s withdrawal treaty. Yet that date has passed and, although the EU has initiated legal action, negotiations continue.

What is going on, and do deadlines not matter? The answer to the first question is that, although both sides see the other as unreasonably intransigent, and the EU is genuinely angry about Britain’s plan to breach international law by rewriting the withdrawal treaty, nobody wants to be responsible for breaking off talks. Moreover, even as big gaps remain over fisheries, state aid and dispute settlement, both prefer a deal to no deal. Hence the curious choreography: keep talking at all costs, and avoid any blame for walking out.