Will Brexit cause disruption in Britain’s ports?

SINCE THE European Union’s single market took effect in 1992, goods have flowed freely across Britain’s border with the EU without the suite of checks normally carried out at a country’s frontier. When Britain leaves the union at 11pm on December 31st, this arrangement will end. Pol Sweeney of Descartes, a supply-chain technology company, estimates that Britain’s departure will create a requirement to inspect a volume of goods some five to ten times larger than are checked at present. Those checks will be required with or without a deal, but will have to be more detailed if no agreement is in place.

Such a sharp increase threatens to overwhelm British ports’ infrastructure. Three decades of freedom mean that most of Britain’s trade with the EU now takes place via “roll-on-roll-off” ferry ports, many of which, because they have never needed it, have no space to carry out newly required physical checks. In preparation, lorry parks have been built around the port of Dover, which accounts for 69% of all goods-vehicle movement between Britain and the EU. The tax office, HMRC, is building a new computer system, the Goods Vehicle Movement Service, to try to minimise disruption. In principle, instead of stopping lorries at the border to inspect their contents, the system allows for checks to be done digitally while they are on the move. The system is not finished, with Britain’s departure days away.

Britain has already said it will fudge its own enforcement on inbound goods for the first six months of 2021, a hedge against disruption. So, barring perhaps protest and other unpredictable outcomes that may arise in the event of no deal, there will be few changes for trade coming into Britain from the EU. A freshly Brexited Britain has the autonomy to continue that situation as long as it needs in the name of minimising disruption, although Mark Clough of Dentons, a law firm, notes that such leniency will probably violate World Trade Organisation rules. Mr Clough says Britain’s view appears to be that by the time any country complains about the lax treatment EU imports are receiving, it will have sorted out any problems and be operating under the rules. Tony McDonach of Hill Dickinson, a maritime law firm, calls the proposal to wave through goods in the name of minimising disruption a “smuggler’s charter”.

Goods moving from Britain to Europe are more vulnerable. France, Belgium and the Netherlands, the European countries into which British goods primarily flow, do not have Britain’s freedom to fudge. As EU members they are all bound by the Union Customs Code, which means, says Brian Mulier of Bird and Bird, a law firm, that 4% of all goods must be physically inspected. Europe’s Court of Auditors will be hovering over the proceedings to ensure that EU rules are followed. If Kent’s lorry parks fill up with outbound vehicles, backed up from the point where they gain entry to the EU, that may have a knock-on effect on inbound traffic, for European hauliers may refuse to take goods into Britain for fear of getting embroiled in the mess.

EU states already have some flexibility on the application of tariffs on pandemic-related supplies, as well as the power to suspend duties in the name of disaster relief. Given that existing flexibility, if disaster looms post-Brexit, Mr Clough sees no reason why the European countries might not also wave goods through to avert a crisis. Sadly for residents of Kent, the Garden of England’s transformation into a lorry park is unlikely to count. ■

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